Italian wine exports are saved in the first half of the year thanks to US stockpiling. But the latest months are negative

The stockpiling effect in the US between January and March keeps Italian wine sales afloat in the first half of 2025. However, there are no reasons to celebrate, as had already emerged from the figures for the first four months of the year. In the most important reference market for wine made in Italy, where since April 2025 import tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have been in force, importers purchased Italian products well in advance, resulting in a fluctuating sales trend. According to the analysis by Nomisma Wine Monitor, published on 1 September, the period January–June 2025 in the US appears positive (+2.5% in value) only thanks to purchases in the first quarter. In fact, the second part is negative. Up to March 2025, wine imports had grown by +22% compared to the same period in 2024, but the cumulative figure for April–June recorded a 7% drop.

Climate of uncertainty

The tariffs (at 15%) imposed by the White House, following the agreement signed with the European Commission (which did not save wine and is already creating regulatory short circuits to the detriment of important Italian agri-food productions), were called into question by a ruling on 30 August by an American Court of Appeal, which deemed them “largely illegal”, following a lawsuit brought by some local companies (including Italian wine importer Victor Schwartz). The Court of Appeal gave the Trump administration until mid-October to lodge an appeal with the Supreme Court. And this scenario only fuels the climate of uncertainty among wine companies and importers.

Concrete risks

“Our companies are clearly obliged to monitor the dynamics taking place at global level in order to identify other markets capable of absorbing our productions,” commented Denis Pantini, head of Nomisma Wine Monitor. “The risk of a contraction in the US market – he warns – could have a significant impact on Italian wine exports, also in light of a trend in domestic consumption which for some years now has been showing signs of slowdown. A decline could not easily be compensated, at least in the short term, by the growth of other markets, which often show slower development dynamics and lower absorption capacity.”

UK performs poorly, Canada and Germany recover

Beyond the United States, considering the 12 main international markets, there is an increase in Italian wine imports of 1.5% in value and +2.1% in volume, reports Nomisma, which focuses on some major buyers. Canada, for example, closes the semester on a positive note, with growth close to 11%, due to the shelf replacement of US wines which suffered a collapse of over 65%, as retaliation for the tariff measures applied by President Trump against the Canadian government. Germany also achieves a decent performance, with wines made in Italy up +10.3% in value, recovering compared to a year ago.

The United Kingdom, on the other hand, is lagging: the decline amounts to 7% in value. Also negative are Switzerland, South Korea, Norway and China, which recorded a contraction in imports in response to the slowdown in domestic demand. Finally, the figures for Japan and Brazil are positive.

The rise of sparkling wines slows down

Nomisma Wine Monitor also examined the different categories. In the first half of 2025, the rise of Italian sparkling wines seems to be slowing down. The cumulative growth in the 12 markets analysed is 1% in value and 6% in volume: Japan, the United States and China are the three markets that recorded the greatest increases. But, on the other hand, there was a marked decline in the United Kingdom (-6.6% in value), in France (-2.4%) and in Australia (-4.4%). Turning to Italian still and semi-sparkling wines, after a negative 2024, Germany recovers (+14.2% in value), together with Canada, Australia and Brazil. The figures remain negative for the United Kingdom (-8.1%) and China (-10.5%).

According to Pantini, in light of international scenarios, Italian companies must begin to “look more carefully at new geographical areas of expansion, diversifying their outlet markets as much as possible. It is, however, necessary to be aware of the fact that the process of commercial consolidation outside consolidated markets, such as the US, requires medium-to-long timeframes, as well as targeted investments and long-term strategies.”