The bill Americans will pay for the 15% US tariffs will be steep: $25 billion, according to estimates from the UIV Observatory. The figure is based on the direct, indirect, and induced impact of the entire wine sector in the US, limited to distribution, retail, and transportation. This impact was quantified by Wine America in the 2025 Economic Impact Report at $144.4 billion—a figure that includes not only sales revenue but also the value generated along the distribution chain, as well as the positive effects of wages, increased purchasing power, and heightened demand for goods and services in related sectors.
Zero tariff goal, also supported by American partners
"Wine," appeals UIV president Lamberto Frescobaldi, "must be included in the package of European agricultural products set for zero or reduced tariffs currently under negotiation. We’re not the only ones asking for this—our American partners are as well, as shown by the communications we’re receiving from the US Wine Trade Alliance and from our overseas importers."
According to the estimates from the UIV Wine Observatory, the tariffs will cause a drop in the consumer value of Italian, French, and Spanish wines by around $3 billion. This, in turn, will create a major deficit for distributors and retailers. The drop in consumer value is just the tip of the iceberg, sparking an avalanche effect that will impact the overall socio-economic footprint of the wine business in the United States, with clear repercussions in terms of wages, demand for goods and services, and employment—even beyond the wine sector.
The decline in consumption of Italian wine
According to UIV’s analysis, the impact (direct, indirect, and induced) of wine will fall from $144.4 billion to $120 billion within a year due to the 15% tariffs—a 17% decrease compared to the current value. Within this scenario, the drop in consumption value of Italian wine plays a major role, accounting for $13.5 billion of the total decline.
As for consumption values, while Italian wine is expected to see a 20% decline within a year, even domestic wines—already on a downward trend for over three years—are projected to suffer a further -13% by August 2026. Added to this is the equally negative performance of other EU wines (-19%) and non-EU foreign wines (-16%)—such as Argentinian, Australian, and Chilean—also already in decline and now subject to new tariffs.
On Lake Como, there’s a grand restaurant born inside an old boathouse
The quiet little seaside restaurant serving spaghetti with clams right by the water
Europe’s highest alpine brewery is in Italy (and it produces unique beers)
What do seafood restaurants cook in Summer when fishing stops? Here’s the idea from a top chef
Wine production at historic lows, consumption falling and exports down by 6%. For EU viticulture, a year to forget
