Italy defies global wine production drop, predicts OIV

The mid-range estimate for production across the wine world from vintage 2025 is 232 million hectolitres, a figure which, while 3% above the historic low of 2024, is below the five-year average, with climatic variability being cited as the "dominant factor" in the report on the data.

For the European Union as a whole, the provisional wine production estimate for 2025 is 140 mhl, 2% above that of last year, but 8% below the five-year average. Despite this fluctuation, EU production still constitutes a majority (60%) of global wine production as recorded by the OIV.

Italy's increase

Italy's output volume from this vintage has been predicted by the OIV to stand at around 47.4 mhl, a year-on-year increase of 8% (3.3 mhl). It is also a positive result compared to other recent harvests, being 2% above the five-year average. It should be noted that this average has been skewed by a particularly poor 2023 harvest (38.3 mhl).

"Favourable weather conditions supported this rebound," the report noted, "with a mild spring, balanced rainfall, and a summer that was overall not excessively hot."

However, the increase was not an even one across Italy, with the South recording a major production increase of 19%, and the North a more moderate rise, while in the Centre output actually decreased by around 3%.

France and Spain

With regards to Italy's EU neighbours, the major wine producing nations of France, Spain, Germany and Portugal all recorded drops in production, both year-on-year and compared to the five-year average.

In the case of France, the predicted 2025 production of 35.9 mhl of wine was a staggering 16% below its average – this would make it the country's lowest wine production in almost 70 years, just edged out by 1957's production of 32.5 mhl.

The OIV notes that it was not an even trend of decline, with climatic conditions in Champagne, Burgundy and the Loire being comparatively favourable to those of Bordeaux, Alsace and Languedoc-Roussillon.

Spain saw a similar decline (15%) compared to its five-year average, with the predicted volume of 29.4 mhl marking only the second time in 30 years that Spanish wine production has fallen below 30 mhl, the other occasion being in vintage 2023.

The wider world

Outside of the European Union, major declines were also recorded by some of the major wine-producing countries.

Perhaps the most dramatic drop was that of Chile, with the South American nation's predicted figure of 8.4 mhl (harvested in the first half of this year, of course) representing a 10% year-on-year drop and a staggering decline of a quarter (26%) on the five-year average.

While the USA remains the biggest non-EU wine producer in the Northern Hemisphere, and its 2025 production is expected to be around 3% above that of 2024, the OIV predicts that 9% less wine will be produced from the current vintage than the five-year average. From the country's West Coast wine heartlands, California and Oregon have reportedly produced more wine this year, while for Washington a decline of around 21% is reported.

Exceptions to the trend

While Italy remains the world's top wine producer by volume, an accolade it most recently lost in the difficult 2023 vintage when France was top, it is not the only country to go against the general downward trajectory.

Slovenia's modest 2025 figure of 0.8 mhl represents a 36% increase on the average and more than double (64%) on that of 2024. Romania's 4.1 mhl is a year-on-year rise of 29% and neighbouring Moldova (which is not an EU member state) was 18% higher than 2024's wine volume.

In the Southern Hemisphere, New Zealand and Brazil's harvests have both resulted in wine production 15% above the five-year average, with a 32% year-on-year increase for the former and 38% for the latter. In both cases, favourable climatic conditions are cited.