Forget containment. Italy will produce 47.4 million hectolitres of wine: ten more than France

What is the ideal harvest? The one with high-quality standards, would have been the answer until not long ago. The one below 45 million hectolitres, is the reply we have often heard in recent months. But today, the harvest estimates for the Belpaese, just presented at Masaf, put us before the reality: 47.4 million hectolitres. The survey, carried out through a process of harmonisation of the methodologies adopted by Assoenologi, Unione Italiana Vini and Ismea, indicates +8% compared to last year and +2% compared to the 2024–2025 average.

A year between very good and excellent

The good news concerns quality which, as has often been anticipated, will range between very good and excellent, provided there are no surprises in the coming weeks.
“From this harvest preview an encouraging fact emerges: the quality of the grapes promises to be very good, in some areas even excellent. This is a fundamental aspect, because in such a complex moment as the one we are experiencing, the quality of wines becomes a decisive factor also in the markets and requires even greater attention in their preparation,” is the comment of the president of Assoenologi, Riccardo Cotarella, who only a few days ago launched the ten-point manifesto to save wine.

France will produce 37.4 million hectolitres

The other evident aspect is the gap with France: a full 10 million hectolitres. The cousins across the Alps have, in fact, revised downwards their harvest estimates compared to those given in August: 37.4 million hectolitres, thanks also to a containment policy, including uprooting. The other competitor has also remained well below the average: Spain is about to bring 36.8 million hectolitres into the cellar.
In this way, Italy returns to the top of the production podium. But, as we have learned, this is not necessarily good news.
“At European level, the 2025 harvest is expected to be slightly more abundant compared to 2024, with Spain facing a lighter crop due to extreme weather events,” is the report of Ignacio Sánchez Recarte, secretary general of CEEV, the association representing European wine companies in the industry and trade. “However,” he adds, “concerns have not been driven only by weather forecasts. Trade policy, and in particular the recent news on US tariffs, has become a central issue for the long-term sustainability of the sector. We find ourselves looking both at the sky and at the TV news.”

The remuneration problem

The president of Unione Italiana Vini, Lamberto Frescobaldi, issues a warning: “Under current market conditions, it will be difficult to guarantee the right remuneration for the supply chain with a harvest of 47.4 million hectolitres, to which will most likely be added about 37 million hectolitres of wine already in the cellar. We are faced with difficulties that affect not only Italy, but all producing countries.”
It is, therefore, already time to make choices. The first, proposed by Frescobaldi himself, is to “revise production schemes, starting from the legislative framework of the Unified Text, with the aim of activating an accordion system of viticultural potential, capable of expanding or contracting depending on market dynamics. It is precisely on trade,” he concludes, “that the decisive game is played, which we hope can be won through an extraordinary promotion campaign, with public-private governance, in the USA and the most promising markets.”

Growth especially in the South

But let us return to this year’s trend. At the moment the grapes are in good condition, thanks to careful and scientific agronomic management, fundamental in a context increasingly marked by extreme events. The harvest campaign was in fact preceded by a phase of uncertainty linked to summer climatic variability. However, the good water reserves accumulated during the winter, a mild spring and an early but fluctuating summer favoured an early harvest in many areas. The phenolic maturity achieved in most regions, combined with the aromatic potential favoured by the thermal excursions at the end of August, points to fresh and long-lived wines in the North, clear and balanced profiles in the Centre and structured, characterful reds in the South.
“The 2025 harvest records widely positive results both in terms of quantity and quality, with a trend confirmed also by regional estimates and by particularly significant growth in the Mezzogiorno, where double-digit increases are recorded,” adds the general director of Ismea, Sergio Marchi.

Record Puglia, Tuscany collapses

The South is certainly driving growth, where the harvest records a double-digit leap (+19%) – led by Puglia’s performance (+17%) – thanks to the water availability accumulated in spring, which allowed the vineyards of the southern regions to cope well with the heatwaves of June and August.
Production is also increasing, albeit with smaller quantities, in the North, with the North West (+8%) showing Lombardy in clear recovery, with +15% compared to last year. Production is also overall increasing in the vineyards of the North East (+3%), where a fluctuating summer was preceded by a very rainy spring, which required careful management of plant diseases. In order, Friuli-Venezia Giulia recorded the largest increase (+10%), followed by Trentino-Alto Adige (+9%) and Veneto (+2%), with very limited growth compared to a 2024 harvest in line with the five-year average. Emilia-Romagna remains stable, divided between the increases of Romagna and the declines, especially in grape weight, in Emilia.
Finally, the Centre shows a negative figure (-3%), where the performances of Umbria (+10%), Marche (+18%) and Lazio (+5%) are not enough to offset the loss of Tuscany (-13%), physiological after a truly abundant 2024. On the regional ranking front, with almost 12 million hectolitres and a share of a quarter of the Italian harvest, Veneto confirms itself as the main Italian wine-producing region, followed by Puglia and Emilia-Romagna, respectively at 19% and 15%, for a total podium share of 59% of national production. Following in the top five are Sicily and Abruzzo, which push Piedmont and Tuscany down to sixth and seventh place on the list.